A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
